Research
Published
How to distinguish human error from election fraud: Evidence from the 2019 Malawi election
with Ryan Jablonski (forthcoming)
Abstract
Voters and politicians often blame tallying irregularities on fraud, undermining perceptions of democratic and electoral credibility. Yet such irregularities also result from capacity failures and human error. We introduce several methods to assess competing causes of tallying irregularities leveraging the quasi-random administration of polling stations. Using these methods, we revisit the case of the 2019 Malawian presidential election which was famously cancelled by the High Court due to widespread tallying irregularities and accusations of fraud. Contrary to the dominant consensus, we do not find evidence that irregularities were motivated by fraud or that they benefited the incumbent. Instead, we show that irregularities increased in proportion to the complexity of filling in result-sheets, suggesting a dominant role for human error. In addition to reinterpreting a historically important election, we also make the case that policy efforts to improve electoral credibility could productively be reallocated towards electoral administration rather than anti-fraud measures.
Please find a draft paper here.
with Brigitte Seim and Ryan Jablonski, Journal of Development Economics, September 2020
Abstract
Does foreign aid shift public spending? Many worry that aid will be “fungible” in the sense that governments reallocate public funds in response to aid. If so, this could undermine development, increase the poorest's dependency on donors, and free resources for patronage. Yet, there is little agreement about the scale or consequences of such effects. We conducted an experiment with 460 elected politicians in Malawi. We provided information about foreign aid projects in local schools to these politicians. Afterwards, politicians made real decisions about which schools to target with development goods. Politicians who received the aid information treatment were 18% less likely to target schools with existing aid. These effects increase to 22–29% when the information was plausibly novel. We find little evidence that aid information heightens targeting of political supporters or family members, or dampens support to the neediest. Instead the evidence indicates politicians allocate the development goods in line with equity concerns.
Please find the full article here.
Work in progress
What drives public trust in elections? Experimental evidence from Malawi
with Alex Yeandle
Abstract
International donors have invested heavily in strenghtening electoral administration in low-income democracies, aiming to reduce irregularities and build trust. However, we know little about whether these interventions actually improve public perceptions. Using a conjoint choice experiment in Malawi, randomising organisational features of polling stations and their potential for political bias, we examine the determinants of public trust in a low-income setting. Voters are more trusting of stations with well-trained polling staff, independent monitors, security personnel, and transparency measures - effects driven by sanctioning the absence of these basic requirements. Respondents also prioritise procedurally fair measures over those that exclusively benefit their own party or ethnic group, challenging assumptions about the dominance of partisanship and ethnicity in African elections. We contribute to the literature on election administration and public opinion in low-income settings, while highlighting ways in which resource-constrained election bodies can build and maintain public support.
Please find a draft paper here.
with Alex Yeandle
Abstract
Research on projection shows that people overestimate the prevalence of their own views among others, and this can significantly shape political behaviour. But existing studies focus on wealthy information-rich democracies, rather than lower-income, uncertain settings where such perceptions are an important, high-stakes part of everyday political life. Misjudging others risks constraining voters' ability to coordinate, which can undermine provision of public goods, confidence in election outcomes, or efforts to overthrow dominant parties. Using original survey data from Malawi, in a pre-registered research design, we show that individuals in a low-income setting systematically overestimate support for their own party and the prevalence of their own ethnic group, while politically engaged individuals overestimate participation by those around them. These findings add new microfoundational insights to the study of politics in low-income states, while highlighting several avenues for future work going forward.
Foreign aid is neither a curse nor a blessing: Explaining the effect of foreign aid on voting behaviour and accountability
with Ryan Jablonski and Brigitte Seim
Abstract
How does foreign aid affect elections? To reconcile mixed evidence, we re-conceptualize the effect of aid on elections as a retrospective voting problem and show that the electoral effects of foreign aid are heterogeneous and depend on the distribution of aid and voter beliefs. To test our argument, we conducted a survey among 2,331 citizens around a sample of 180 schools in Malawi before and after the delivery of a foreign NGO project. Additionally, we conducted a SMS-based information experiment which varied voter knowledge about the aid allocation process. In line with expectations, voters who benefit from aid are more likely to anticipate voting for incumbents. But overall aid was a mixed blessing for incumbents: when citizens learn about aid, but fail to benefit, we document a sizable backlash against incumbents. Citizens were less likely to be satisfied with or vote for incumbents.
Natural Disasters and Electoral Politics in Low-Income States
with Alex Yeandle
Abstract
Climate change is making natural disasters more frequent, including in low-income countries where governments lack the capacity to respond effectively. Yet despite these vulnerabilities, little is known about how disasters shape electoral outcomes in such contexts. We provide new evidence by studying the impact of Cyclone Idai, the second dedliest cyclone in recorded history, whcih struck Malawi's Southern region just months before the 2019 general election.
In a difference-in-difference setting, leveraging geocoded polling station returns and granular measures of flood and landslide exposure, we show that incumbent vote share declined significantly in affected areas, while voter turnout rose. These effects persist into the 2020 re-run election, are robust to alternative specifications and placebo tests, and are driven by areas where the ruling party had relatively weaker prior levels of support.
To explain these patterns, we turn to a range of individual-level survey data and qualitative evidence. First, voters in government strongholds appear to have been more financially resilient, dampening the economic impact of flooding. Second, opposition parties strategically concentrated campaign efforts in other flood-affected areas, plausibly eroding local support for the ruling party. Third, relaxed voter identification requirements and targeted civic education in flooded areas may have contributet to higher turnout.
Collectively. these findings contribute to literature on climate change, accountability, and political behaviour in low-capacity states, highlighting dynamics likely to become increasingly salient as climate shocks intensify going forward.